Research project uses the latest laser-technology for improved forecasts of offshore wind
The expansion of offshore wind energy will be rapidly driven forward over the next few years. The German government’s expansion plans aim to increase the capacity of offshore wind energy to at least 30 gigawatts (GW) by 2030 and to at least 70 GW by 2045. Accurate and reliable power forecasts for wind farms and wind farm clusters are required to integrate this additional capacity into the electricity system. These forecasts make it possible to predict short-term fluctuations of power output caused by strong variations in wind speed, known as wind ramps, and to react accordingly in order to ensure even further optimized utilization of the capacities of the wind farms and the electricity grid.
An important milestone in the WindRamp II research project was the start of the first measurement campaign at the Amrumbank West offshore wind farm. Three long-range scanning lidar systems were installed on selected wind turbines in spring 2025. In addition, meteorological sensors are being used to collect data on atmospheric stability and the vertical structure of the wind field (‘profile’ estimates). The aim of this measurement campaign is to obtain comprehensive information about the inflow of the wind farm, up to a distance of fifteen kilometers upstream. Amrumbank West is located around 35 kilometers northwest of Heligoland in the German Bight. With 80 wind turbines, it is one of the largest offshore wind farms in Germany, with a total installed capacity of around 302 megawatts. Since its commissioning in 2015, the RWE-operated wind farm generates enough energy to supply around 300,000 households with electricity. The geographical location and size of the park offer ideal conditions for validating the technologies used in the project.
Short-term changes in wind speed – so-called ramp events – can often not be predicted accurately enough using conventional methods. Therefore, a central aspect of the project is to use long-range scanning lidar devices to extend the forecasting horizon and to improve the quality of the forecasts. On this basis, observer-based wind power forecasts can be created. In combination with short-term lidar forecasts and simultaneous grid flexibilization, this can help to optimize the curtailment of offshore wind energy due to grid bottlenecks and minimize the need for balancing energy.
With the ‘WindRamp II’ project, ForWind Oldenburg is building on the successful work of the ‘WindRamp’ project completed in December 2023, in which an observer-based minute-scale forecast for wind speed and power was researched. The aim of the new project is to extend these forecasting methods to heterogeneous wind farm clusters with very large wind turbines and to develop new methods that improve forecast accuracy, the forecast horizon and reliability in unfavorable weather conditions.
The project is being coordinated by ForWind – Center for Wind Energy Research at the Universities of Oldenburg, Hanover and Bremen. The joint partners include energy & meteo systems, the German Aerospace Center (DLR) – Institut für Vernetzte Energiesysteme and RWE. METEK, Abacus Laser and Tennet are involved as associated partners. The project is receiving financial funding from the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Energy (BMWE).
The sub-project of ForWind Oldenburg aims to extend the observer-based forecast to heterogeneous wind farm clusters with very large wind turbines and to develop new methods for increased forecast accuracy and an extended forecast horizon. The aim of the Wind Energy Systems research group at the University of Oldenburg is to use the improved power forecasts to develop more reliable system integration of wind energy with less need for balancing energy and warnings in the event of expected ramp events. The novel technologies of ‘XXL’ long-range scanning lidar devices with improved range and higher resolution developed in the WindRamp project by Abacus Laser and METEK will be used for this purpose.
As part of WindRamp II, project partner RWE will test such a new type of XXL-lidar prototype that will be able to capture the wind field over a distance of up to 25 kilometers. This innovative device has now been delivered. It will now undergo an onshore test phase in northern Germany. Next year, the XXL lidar will be tested in an offshore wind farm cluster off Heligoland as part of the ongoing project to evaluate and optimise the practicality and effectiveness of the technology in real offshore conditions.
The DLR Institute of Networked Energy Systems, which is also involved in the project, uses lidar minute-scale forecasts to optimize the integration of fluctuating offshore wind energy into the electricity system. What is new is that the expected skill of the lidar forecast is taken into account in order to increase the reliable scheduling of wind power and that of other power plants with the overarching goal to reduce system integration costs.
energy & meteo systems will use wind data from lidar measurements and current generation data from several offshore wind farms to improve short-term power forecasts. Combining these data sources will not only further increase the accuracy of forecasts but also enable the development of effective and timely early warnings of ramping events for electricity traders and grid operators.
The project term ends in May 2027 and the results will not only be made available in scientific publications but will also find concrete application in practice. Particularly noteworthy here is the collaboration with the OranjeWind offshore wind farm, which is still under construction. Parallel to WindRamp II, OranjeWind is supporting the demonstration of a real-time system for short-term power forecasting at the Amrumbank-West wind farm. The experience gained from both projects will then be incorporated into a power forecasting pilot project at the OranjeWind offshore wind farm once it is operational.
